Fantasy Box Office: The Skywalker Rises (But Not Too Impressively)

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Recap

It’s been a bit since the last fantasy box office update, for which I apologize. I’ve been using that time to work on improving the fantasy site, and you can see the updates when you login. Here’s a summary of how the holiday period’s new releases have been doing:

  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is, unsurprisingly, the biggest film of the season. While guaranteed to fall short of the box office numbers of The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi, Skywalker is also likely to end up below Rogue One too. The film is still grossing big numbers, but when beating the performance of a spin-off title from three years ago is in question for what was billed as the grand finale to a multi-decade saga, you know there’s something wrong. Still, for fantasy box office players, Skywalker will end up making some profit, albeit not as much as most would have expected.
  • Black Christmas was DOA thanks to the poor critical and audience reception, and continues to be dead. This makes it one of the very few Blumhouse or horror titles in general to not make a profit in the game. Right now, it’s stalled at 18M with the breakeven point of 40M far out of reach.
  • Despite Fox Searchlight shelling out 12-14M for the film’s distribution rights, I don’t think Terrence Malick’s latest movie A Hidden Life will end up doing well. There’s still hope since the title won’t be going wide until January, but buzz seems muted, the film doesn’t seem very GA-friendly, and Malick isn’t known for good box office results.
  • Jumanji: The Next Level is already profitable in the game, as the Sony-franchise-that-could continues to gross respectable numbers, albeit not as great as the previous film’s.
  • Richard Jewell flopped hard, despite Clint Eastwood hitting gold with this release slot just a year ago with The Mule.
  • Uncut Gems is at 25M and has a 30M breakeven. This title should make a small profit. I guess you could say for A24 it was a…hidden gem.
  • Cats is doing terribly, but you knew that already.
  • Bombshell isn’t really getting enough traction to overcome its 60M cost in the game. It feels like another Vice where despite some good reactions, the film just can’t open up to the general audience the same way The Big Short was able to so successfully.
  • Spies in Disguise is running soft. Outside of Ice Age, Blue Sky just can’t make a hit consistently.
  • Little Women is doing excellently considering it’s mere 45M cost in the game, and should end up with a good profit. Quite a nice small win for Sony, especially considering the overall challenging market for finding success with films like this.
  • Just Mercy and 1917 are still in limited release. If they have potential profitability it will be better figured out once they go wide.
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Investments closing at 12:01 AM EST this Sunday

Extending the deadline a bit for this one. Also if there were any previous films you missed from the missed updates, please let me know.

  • The Grudge: 15M

New investments

  • Fantasy Island: 30M
  • The Photograph: 25M
  • Sonic the Hedgehog: 140M
  • The Call of the Wild: 165M
  • The Invisible Man: 15M